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\title{Assessment of Energy Security of the Region on the Example of Pridnestrovye}
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\begin{document}

             \author[1]{S.G.  Fedorchenko}

             \author[2]{G.S.  Fedorchenko}

             \affil[1]{  Pridnestrovian State University, Tiraspol}

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\date{\small \em Received: 15 June 2021 Accepted: 4 July 2021 Published: 15 July 2021}

\maketitle


\begin{abstract}
        


Article is devoted to a problem of assessment of energy security of the region. The indicative analysis, function of usefulness of Harington-Menchera is applied. While assessing the level of energy security it is offered to consider the mode of functioning of the region power system. The offered technique is used for assessment of energy security of Pridnestrovye

\end{abstract}


\keywords{energy security, the generalized function of usefulness, indicator method, correlation groups.}

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\let\tabcellsep& 	 	 		 
\section[{Introduction}]{Introduction}\par
arlier we offered \hyperref[b0]{[1,}\hyperref[b1]{2,}\hyperref[b2]{3]} to use an integrated indicator while forming the assessment of the region energy security:\par
-A set of the indicators characterizing energy security of the explored region \hyperref[b2]{[3]}; -The range of critical variables they relate to energy independence as set up by the individual conducting the study \hyperref[b0]{[1,}\hyperref[b1]{2]}; -Harington-Menchera function \hyperref[b7]{[8]}.\par
We use the technique offered by us of creation of an integrated indicator of energy security of Pridnestrovye. 
\section[{II.}]{II.} 
\section[{Pre-Processing of Data}]{Pre-Processing of Data}\par
We use the technique offered by us of creation of an integrated indicator of energy security of Pridnestrovye.\par
According to our technique previously it is necessary to transform values of indicators to values of dimensionless function of usefulness which we will call as private indicators of quality. This transformation is described in detail \hyperref[b3]{[4]}.\par
The technique used while forming an integrated indicator of energy security demands the values of the indicators used by us to be not correlated. For checking of implementation of this requirement we use the method of correlation groups \hyperref[b4]{[5]}.\par
At assessment of the size of energy security of Pridnestrovye we used 16 indicators. The range of critical variables was borrowed (with some changes) from \hyperref[b5]{[6]}.    As the value characterizing a group is used the average value of private indicators of quality along all the members of a group. The values of the scales received by us as a result of poll experts' are presented in the right TABLE I column.\par
Data for calculation of the generalized function of usefulness are consolidated in Table \hyperref[tab_1]{2}.  Calculations given in Table \hyperref[tab_1]{2} are executed for normal working hours of power supply system \hyperref[b6]{[7]}. It is obvious that in other working hours of power supply system, weight coefficients of indicators will change that will affect value of an integrated indicator. The example of similar calculations is given in Table \hyperref[tab_2]{3}. We received the values of scales as a results of experts' poll.\par
It is visible in Table \hyperref[tab_2]{3} that weight of indicators very strongly depend on working hours of power supply system, so, at critical operating modes the value of economic indicators decreases (z13, z16) and the role of the indicator (z2) increases. 
\section[{IV.}]{IV.} 
\section[{Analysis of the Obtained Results}]{Analysis of the Obtained Results}\par
On closer examination Table \hyperref[tab_2]{3} it is visible that in process of deterioration in a working hours of power supply system, the value of the combined integrated indicator of energy security of D falls. We need to find the reason causing this change.\par
Let's transform the formula on which there is a calculation of the generalized function of usefulness, as follows:4 3 2 1 / 4 / 3 / 2 / 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 D D D D d d d d d d d d D = = = ? ? ? ? + + + = ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?\par
.\par
(\par
Here D1, D2, D3, D4 are factors of the combined integrated indicator of EB.\par
Let's execute calculations of D1, D2, D3, D4 values and we will construct on them the schedules presented on Fig 3, 4.\par
These schedules show that in process of working hours of power supply system changing (at invariable values of indicators, but the changing values of their scales), D2 factor size -a share of the dominating fuel in total fuel quantity falls that involves falling of size of all integrated indicator of ES.   F\par
The schedule of size D2 dependence on working hours of power supply system is presented on Fig 5 it is visible that to a measure of deterioration in a working hours of power supply system size D2 decreases, and since the mode of functioning No. 5, passes into a zone of values "unsatisfactorily" (size D<0.37).\par
We made an attempt to number the estimate influence of possible values z2 indicators on energy security of the region, at invariable values of other indicators. Values of the indicator from 50\% to 98\% are for this purpose changed and the size of the combined integrated indicator of energy security of the region -D is counted. Calculation results are given in Table \hyperref[tab_3]{4}, 5.  \hyperref[tab_3]{4} contains the values D calculated for various values of the z2 indicator. In the table values which are less, than 0.37 are highlighted in bold. It demonstrates that the power supply system of the region is in an unsatisfactory state. Values, smaller, than 0.2 are corresponded to a condition of the system "very badly". It is visible that these estimates depend on the mode of functioning of the region power system. So in modes No. 1, 2 at any values of the z2 indicator the system will not be in an unsatisfactory state, in modes No. 7, 8, for ensuring satisfactory work of power supply system, the value of the z2 indicator has to be less than 82\%. For comparison we will consider the same results of calculation, but we will compare the received values to number 0.63 -border of good and satisfactory functioning of power supply system. The received results are given in Table \hyperref[tab_4]{5}. From the table it is visible that for ensuring good functioning of a system the value of the z2 indicator in the 8th mode has to be less than 66\%, and in the 1st mode -less than 90\%.\par
Relying on the values given above, it is possible to claim that for increase in level of energy security of power supply system of the region, it is necessary to have an opportunity, to reduce a share of the dominating fuel at the modes of functioning of power supply system other than normal. Let's consider one of possible options of such actions is the translation of the unit of the Pridnestrovian state district power plant which provides with the electric power Pridnestrovye on other type of fuel -coal. It is known that the Pridnestrovian state district power plant has the corresponding equipment which is in the preserved state now.\par
The state district power plant uses from 30\% to 40\% of the gas consumed by Pridnestrovye. It allows to claim that conversion of the corresponding unit of state district power plant to coal will allow to reduce a share of the dominating fuel by 27-36\%, that is the indicator that accepts values in the range from 60\% up to 55\%. From tables 4, 5 it is clear that it will allow, to increase the level of energy security of the region for satisfactory condition, regardless of the mode of functioning of power supply system.      \begin{figure}[htbp]
\noindent\textbf{1} \par 
\begin{longtable}{P{0.11860465116279069\textwidth}P{0.10872093023255815\textwidth}P{0.09883720930232558\textwidth}P{0.0938953488372093\textwidth}P{0.06918604651162791\textwidth}P{0.15319767441860463\textwidth}P{0.09883720930232558\textwidth}P{0.10872093023255815\textwidth}}
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep I\\
\tabcellsep z9\tabcellsep 0,836 0,978\tabcellsep z12\tabcellsep 1\tabcellsep z4\tabcellsep \tabcellsep Year 2021\\
\tabcellsep z7\tabcellsep \tabcellsep z10\tabcellsep \tabcellsep z1\tabcellsep z15\\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep 0,944\tabcellsep \tabcellsep 0,934\tabcellsep z14 0,957\tabcellsep 0,963\tabcellsep ersion I\\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep 0,928\tabcellsep \\
z2\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep z3\tabcellsep \tabcellsep z5\tabcellsep z11\\
\tabcellsep \multicolumn{2}{l}{0,62}\tabcellsep \multicolumn{2}{l}{0,986}\tabcellsep \multicolumn{2}{l}{0,966}\\
II\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \\
\multicolumn{2}{l}{0,605}\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \\
z16\tabcellsep \multicolumn{2}{l}{0,51}\tabcellsep z13\tabcellsep 0,66\tabcellsep z8\tabcellsep 0,998\tabcellsep z6\\
\tabcellsep III\tabcellsep IV\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep V\tabcellsep \\
z2\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \\
IV\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \\
\multicolumn{2}{l}{0,605}\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \\
z16\tabcellsep \multicolumn{2}{l}{0,51}\tabcellsep z13\tabcellsep 0,58\tabcellsep z1\tabcellsep 0,72\tabcellsep z8\\
\tabcellsep III\tabcellsep II\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep I\tabcellsep \end{longtable} \par
  {\small\itshape [Note: Let's find the average value of private functions of usefulness of the indicators entering galaxy No. 1 and designate it as.]} 
\caption{\label{tab_0}Table 1 :}\end{figure}
 \begin{figure}[htbp]
\noindent\textbf{2} \par 
\begin{longtable}{P{0.0681297709923664\textwidth}P{0.6423664122137405\textwidth}P{0.02919847328244275\textwidth}P{0.11030534351145037\textwidth}}
Codes\tabcellsep Description of an indicator\tabcellsep Group\tabcellsep Weight of groups ?? ??\\
d 1 *\tabcellsep The average d1 value d1* on group No. 1\tabcellsep 1\tabcellsep 0,6\\
d 2\tabcellsep Share of the dominating fuel in total fuel quantity.\tabcellsep 2\tabcellsep 0,8\\
d 16\tabcellsep Energy investments.\tabcellsep 3\tabcellsep 0,5\\
d 13\tabcellsep Ratio of energy resources cost and average per capita income.\tabcellsep 4\tabcellsep 0,7\end{longtable} \par
 
\caption{\label{tab_1}Table 2 :}\end{figure}
 \begin{figure}[htbp]
\noindent\textbf{3} \par 
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\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \multicolumn{2}{l}{Values of weight coefficients}\tabcellsep \tabcellsep The\\
Mode of power supply system functioning\tabcellsep Z1*\tabcellsep z2\tabcellsep z16\tabcellsep z13\tabcellsep combined integrated indicator\\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep value of D\\
Normal\tabcellsep 0,8\tabcellsep 0,1\tabcellsep 0,5\tabcellsep 0,9\tabcellsep 0,545\\
Pre-crisis initial\tabcellsep 0,8\tabcellsep 0,2\tabcellsep 0,45\tabcellsep 0,75\tabcellsep 0,444\\
Pre-crisis developing\tabcellsep 0,8\tabcellsep 0,3\tabcellsep 0,4\tabcellsep 0,7\tabcellsep 0,363\\
Pre-crisis critical\tabcellsep 0,8\tabcellsep 0,4\tabcellsep 0,4\tabcellsep 0,65\tabcellsep 0,301\\
Crisis unstable\tabcellsep 0,8\tabcellsep 0,5\tabcellsep 0,35\tabcellsep 0,6\tabcellsep 0,254\\
Crisis menacing\tabcellsep 0,8\tabcellsep 0,7\tabcellsep 0,3\tabcellsep 0,55\tabcellsep 0,184\\
Crisis critical\tabcellsep 0,8\tabcellsep 0,8\tabcellsep 0,3\tabcellsep 0,5\tabcellsep 0,16\\
Crisis extraordinary\tabcellsep 0,8\tabcellsep 0,9\tabcellsep 0,25\tabcellsep 0,4\tabcellsep 0,128\end{longtable} \par
 
\caption{\label{tab_2}Table 3 :}\end{figure}
 \begin{figure}[htbp]
\noindent\textbf{4} \par 
\begin{longtable}{P{0.06918604651162791\textwidth}P{0.007906976744186046\textwidth}P{0.029651162790697672\textwidth}P{0.09686046511627908\textwidth}P{0.09686046511627908\textwidth}P{0.16209302325581396\textwidth}P{0.09686046511627908\textwidth}P{0.09686046511627908\textwidth}P{0.09686046511627908\textwidth}P{0.09686046511627908\textwidth}}
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \multicolumn{3}{l}{Values of the z2 indicator, in \%}\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep 78\tabcellsep 80\tabcellsep 82\tabcellsep 86\tabcellsep 90\tabcellsep 94\tabcellsep 98\\
No. of functioning of a system\tabcellsep mode\tabcellsep 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8\tabcellsep 0,701 0,627 0,580 0,550 0,518 0,457 0,434 0,394\tabcellsep 0,692 0,610 0,556 0,520 0,483 0,416 0,391 0,350\tabcellsep 0,681 0,591 0,530 0,488 0,447 0,375 0,348 0,306\tabcellsep 0,656 0,547 0,472 0,420 0,370 0,291 0,262 0,221\tabcellsep 0,628 0,498 0,410 0,350 0,294 0,214 0,186 0,149\tabcellsep 0,596 0,446 0,348 0,282 0,225 0,149 0,124 0,094\tabcellsep 0,564 0,398 0,293 0,226 0,170 0,103 0,082 0,058\\
Table\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \end{longtable} \par
 
\caption{\label{tab_3}Table 4 :}\end{figure}
 \begin{figure}[htbp]
\noindent\textbf{5} \par 
\begin{longtable}{P{0.059388646288209605\textwidth}P{0.025982532751091702\textwidth}P{0.08722707423580786\textwidth}P{0.0853711790393013\textwidth}P{0.15032751091703056\textwidth}P{0.0853711790393013\textwidth}P{0.0890829694323144\textwidth}P{0.0890829694323144\textwidth}P{0.0890829694323144\textwidth}P{0.0890829694323144\textwidth}}
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \multicolumn{4}{l}{Values of the z2 indicator, in \%}\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep 66\tabcellsep 68\tabcellsep 70\tabcellsep 72\tabcellsep 74\tabcellsep 76\tabcellsep 78\tabcellsep 90\\
No. functioning of a system mode\tabcellsep 1 2 3 4 5 6 7\tabcellsep 0,738 0,699 0,682 0,678 0,674 0,65 0,644\tabcellsep 0,734 0,69 0,67 0,663 0,654 0,625 0,617\tabcellsep 0,729 0,681 0,656 0,645 0,632 0,597 0,586\tabcellsep 0,723 0,67 0,64 0,625 0,608 0,566 0,552\tabcellsep 0,717 0,657 0,622 0,602 0,580 0,532 0,515\tabcellsep 0,709 0,643 0,602 0,577 0,551 0,496 0,476\tabcellsep 0,701 0,627 0,580 0,550 0,518 0,457 0,434\tabcellsep 0,628 0,498 0,410 0,350 0,294 0,214 0,186\\
\tabcellsep 8\tabcellsep 0,620\tabcellsep 0,590\tabcellsep 0,556\tabcellsep 0,519\tabcellsep 0,480\tabcellsep 0,438\tabcellsep 0,394\tabcellsep 0,149\end{longtable} \par
 
\caption{\label{tab_4}Table 5 :}\end{figure}
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